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Events in the week ahead

October 24, 2011

Today is Monday. In case you forgot, you can thank me later.

Let’s take a look at the key events coming up this week. The huge elephant in the room is obviously the EFSF meetings, which will conclude on Sunday. The tagline of this second meeting will be something like this: “EFSF 2: Return of the Deutsche Mark Jedi.” The other big event to watch is US Q3 GDP announcement on Thursday. Growth expected at 2.5%, up from 1.3% in Q2. Surprise to the downside is unlikely and would send an unwelcome tremor through the markets.

Here’s the full list of important events, courtesy of Zerohedge,

Monday 24th

Euro-zone Oct flash PMIs: Consensus expects the manufacturing PMI to fall by 0.4 to 48.5.

HSBC China Flash PMI: The last reading stood at 49.9. The latest one just printed at 51.1

Also Interesting: Fed Dudley speech, Israel monetary policy meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged.

Tuesday 25th

Germany Consumer Confidence: Consensus expects a virtually unchanged reading at 5.1.

Italy consumer confidence and retail sales: Given the focus on Italian debt sustainability in the market, retail sales and consumer sentiment may provide indications about cyclical strength. Consensus expects basically unchanged numbers.

Hungary MPC meeting: We and consensus expect rates to stay on hold at 6.0%.

BoC policy meeting: Consensus expects no change from 1.00%.

US Oct Consumer Confidence: Consensus expects 46 after 45.4 in Sep. This is the monthly Conference Board survey.
India Reserve Bank meeting: Markets expect the repo and reverse repo rates to get raised by 25bp to 8.50% and 7.50%.

Wednesday 26th

Australia Q3 CPI: We expect 3.5%yoy, in line with consensus after 3.6% in Q2.

US Sep Durable goods orders: Consensus expects -0.8%mom after -0.1% in Aug.

EU Summit: According to EU Commission President Barroso, final decisions about the Euro-area debt crisis will be made at this summit.

Also Interesting: US new home sales.

Thursday 27th

US Q3 GDP: We expect 2.5%, in line with consensus after 1.3% in Q2.

RBNZ Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 2.50%.

Riksbank Meeting: Consensus expects no change from 2.00%.

BoJ Meeting: We expect no change from 0.10%, in line with consensus.

Regional German CPI data: Last month, these numbers were the first to indicate rising inflation pressures in the Eurozone core.

Also interesting: US jobless claims, Speech by Bundesbank Chef Weidmann, Turkey trade balance (Sep).

Friday 28th

Japanese Inflation and Industrial Production: consensus expects the data to paint a deflationary picture with faster-falling price indices and a notable drop in IP (-2.1% mom)

Italian Bond Auction: This could well be one of the first serious tests to see if the EU summit earlier in the week helped improve market confidence.

Russia Monetary Policy meeting: We and consensus expect unchanged rates at 3.75%.

US Sep Personal Income: Consensus expects 0.3%mom after -0.1% in Aug.

US UMich consumer sentiment: This is the final reading, which is expected to show only very marginal improvements compared to the preliminary reading.

Swiss KOF leading indicator: This is expected to drop notably to about 1.04 from 1.21, according to GS and consensus.

Also interesting: UK consumer confidence.”



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