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Writing as organizing

October 11, 2011

It has been said that writing is simply the process of organizing. If this is true, I write this blog merely to organize my thoughts. If I were 99% accurate on picking stocks, I would be a billionaire and living like Richard Branson on a spaceship or something. Sadly, I am merely human. If I could have 1 good stock pick for every 99 bad picks, I would be happy as long as that 1 pick earned money for every single reason I anticipated. I write this blog to organize my thoughts and try to make better sense of the complex, Pollockian financial world in which we live.

With regards to S, I am still long, strong, and optimistic that we’ll get strong iPhone pre-order numbers this week, which should help with a “dead cat” bounce. It’s always been amazing to me that analyst downgrades can cause such tectonic stock movements. Analysts are the same group of people who are no more accurate at picking stocks than monkeys, or blindfolded dart throwers. In times of volatility, analysts generally perform even worse.¬†See here for quick examples

Price movements associated with upgrades (and downgrades) can only be attributed to the analyst’s employing bank will start pimping (or not) the stock to its clients. Goldman is the best on the street at this, especially while they themselves bet against whatever poor quality financial wares they’re hocking. This is more applicable in the derivatives and credit markets than equities, but the principles are the same.

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